UNDP says 800 million young people in developing economies may find no jobs

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) said approximately 800 million young people entering the labour market in developing economies over the coming years will not find jobs unless countries act. UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo gave the warning at a press briefing in New York. He spoke by video from Bangkok, where he is attending the World Bank Group-International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings. UNDP launched two initiatives at the same time.

Mr. De Croo set out the numbers. “If you look at the next 15 years, there will be 1.2 billion young people graduating from school, going into the labour market,” he said. “Unfortunately, for only 400 million of these, there will be jobs. For 800 million of these, there will not be jobs.”

He said the gap was driven by demographics. In many developing countries, he said, the median age is between 18 and 25. He added that the job projections were based on the current state of technology. “That is not going to go by itself. This is the result of policy,” he said.

UN News, the UN's own news service, described the two initiatives. The Investment Accelerator will help governments improve investment policies and legal frameworks, build pipelines of investment-ready projects and move them from preparation to implementation. The Jobs for Prosperity Facility will help countries identify sectors with strong job-creation potential, align skills with what employers need and tackle barriers to business investment and hiring.

UN News reports that both initiatives are backed by expanded partnerships with the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Pilot initiatives are already underway in Nepal, Yemen, Haiti, Lebanon and Ghana. Mr. De Croo said UNDP has signed a framework agreement with the World Bank.

Asked whether artificial intelligence (AI) was a factor, Mr. De Croo said the projections could change through active labour policies. He noted that care, agriculture and tourism would still create many jobs even as AI accelerates. “Job creation is actually the only real sustainable way for people to grow out of poverty,” he said.

Mr. De Croo said many developing countries face what he called a “triple shock”: high energy costs, one of the most pronounced El Niño events since 1950, and very high borrowing costs. A new UNDP report, No Time to Recover, says the median developing country now spends 9.5 per cent of total government income on interest payments alone.

UN News also reported that, for the first time since 2010, the number of people living in multidimensional poverty has risen. That measure counts access to electricity, water, health care and education as well as income. “Those numbers should absolutely be a wake-up call to all of us,” Mr. De Croo said.

He said developing countries had shielded their people from higher fuel and food prices, and that this kept 112 million people from slipping back into poverty. He said the protection came at a very high fiscal cost.

Several things are not in the sources. They do not explain how UNDP calculated the 800 million figure beyond its reliance on current technology. They give no budget for either initiative. They name five pilot countries and no others. UNDP is a UN agency, and UN News is part of the UN, so the UN is reporting on its own programme here. The Spanish-language UN News report describes the same job figures as applying over the next decade, while the English, French and Arabic reports say 15 years.