IOM warns nearly 874,000 people in Somalia could be displaced by floods within three months

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has warned that 874,319 people in Somalia could be displaced between October and December, mostly by floods. The agency produced the projection with the Danish Refugee Council. The Secretary-General's spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, repeated the warning at the daily press briefing. Flooding would account for 92 per cent of the expected displacement, according to the projection.

IOM said it has secured 14 per cent of the $16.6 million it needs to prepare for and respond to floods linked to El Niño. The money is meant to help more than 517 000 people in flood-prone communities across Somalia, including families living in crowded displacement sites.

Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM's chief of mission in Somalia, said hundreds of thousands of people could lose their homes within weeks. He said many of these families have already been displaced and have little left to fall back on. He said there is still time to reduce the impact, but that the window is closing. He asked for urgent funds to help people protect their homes and livelihoods, move to safer areas where necessary and avoid another cycle of displacement.

Somalia is entering a rainy season forecast to bring above-normal rainfall as El Niño conditions strengthen. IOM said the first signs are already visible. In Baidoa, heavy rain has damaged homes and forced families to leave several neighbourhoods. At Dollow, the Jubba river is nearing flood level. At Jowhar, the Shabelle river is rising toward the top of its banks. IOM named Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo among the areas most at risk. It said about 229 000 people are threatened with displacement in Beletweyne and 82 000 in Gaalkacyo.

Families in crowded displacement sites are especially exposed. IOM said assessments there show insufficient access to clean water and sanitation, which raises fears of disease outbreaks if the floods worsen. The agency said rising water could also destroy crops, disrupt livelihoods, contaminate water sources and cut off health care and other essential services. The communities concerned are already struggling with drought and repeated displacement.

IOM said it is working with Somali authorities and local communities to strengthen early warning systems, identify safer evacuation routes and prepare emergency aid. It said the shortage of money is slowing work to set up safe relocation areas and to provide shelter, clean water, sanitation and health care. The agency called on the international community to support preparedness and early action before rising water forces more families out of their homes.

The sources leave several things out. They do not say how many people are already displaced in Somalia, which donors IOM has approached, or how the projection was calculated. They do not give the amount of money IOM has received so far. The figures are those of IOM and its partner, and the briefing by the Secretary-General's spokesperson relays them. This paper cannot check them.